As mid-week footy wraps up, the attention turns toward the crucial final stretch leading to the finals. Key matchups loom on the horizon, with Port Adelaide set to clash against St Kilda, and West Coast taking on Fremantle—both battles promising to have significant implications. Additionally, Melbourne’s recent resurgence makes their encounter with Richmond this Saturday particularly compelling.
**THURSDAY, OCTOBER 17**
*Last time they met*: Carlton 8.5 (53) defeated the Western Bulldogs 4.10 (34), Round 6, 2023.
Following last week’s tightly contested and defensive struggle, the Bulldogs find themselves under scrutiny. This week’s game will be a litmus test for their approach: will they revert to their old ways, or opt for a more dynamic style? With both teams ranking among the season’s lowest scorers, a repeat of the previous week’s grind could be on the cards. Yet, should the Bulldogs choose to unleash their speed, fans might witness an exciting and fast-paced contest. Unfortunately, they’ve faced challenges in winning the ball, especially in tight situations, averaging just 97 contested possessions per game—the only team to drop below the century mark in recent seasons. This trend leads to a staggering 54.9 marks conceded per match, the highest in the competition.
Amid their own challenges, Carlton surely recognizes this weakness and will be focused on the contested ball in light of Abbie McKay’s significant 50th AFLW match. The Blues have struggled with their inside 50 entries, often finding success when opting to run the ball forward rather than aiming for traditional marking targets. Their midfielders stepping up to kick goals may ultimately decide the outcome.
*Tip*: Expect Carlton to finally notch up a home win with a 15-point margin.
**FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18**
*Port Adelaide vs. St Kilda at Alberton Oval, 7.15pm ACDT*
*Last time they met*: Port Adelaide 8.8 (56) defeated St Kilda 7.6 (48), Round 3, 2023.
Both Port Adelaide and St Kilda have experienced contrasting fortunes in games this season. The Power typically find their stride after slow starts, while the Saints have frequently faded as matches progress. This contest should, therefore, see significant momentum shifts around half-time. Julia Teakle’s knee injury paves the way for Olivia Levicki in Port Adelaide’s attack, while Matilda Scholz—fresh off her Telstra Rising Star nomination—has a chance to impact the game against St Kilda’s reshuffled ruck division.
A focal point for the Power will be how they handle Saints star Jesse Wardlaw. His recent goal-scoring form, netting six goals over the last two weeks, underscores the importance of a solid plan. St Kilda began the season averaging six goalkickers but has since dipped to just 2.8, with Wardlaw contributing nearly half of their total goals. This responsibility may fall to seasoned player Ange Foley or talented youngster Amelie Borg. The Saints also need to recommit to their fast-paced running style to reinvigorate their offense.
**SATURDAY, OCTOBER 19**
*Last time they met*: Greater Western Sydney 4.10 (34) defeated Hawthorn 5.3 (33), Round 8, 2022 S7.
One of Greater Western Sydney’s notable vulnerabilities—maintaining possession in their attacking half—will face a test against Hawthorn’s swift transition game. Despite being without Greta Bodey, Hawthorn boasts plenty of pace, with players like Aine McDonagh and Jasmine Fleming capable of slicing through the Giants’ defense.
For the Giants, strong defensive efforts are critical. They must work not only to secure their own clearances but also to obstruct the Hawks’ handball game around stoppages. Disrupting Hawthorn’s outlet plays is crucial to slowing their explosive offense—especially in the second quarter, where the Hawks have excelled this year. In contrast, the Giants have struggled in this period, failing to secure a second-quarter win to date.
*Tip*: Hawthorn is poised to secure their place in the top four, winning by 30 points.
*Sydney vs. Gold Coast at Henson Park, 3.05pm AEDT*
*Last time they met*: Sydney 9.4 (58) defeated Gold Coast 6.5 (41), elimination final, 2023.
Both Sydney and Gold Coast are seeking to regain their footing in a season that hasn’t gone as planned. Recent respectable losses provide some momentum as former No.1 draft picks Montana Ham and Charlie Rowbottom go head-to-head in the midfield.
The Swans aspire to quick ball movement, but this can lead to hasty decisions and turnovers. Charlotte Wilson is likely to mark Bec Privitelli, and players like Bella Smith will need to stretch the Suns’ defense. On the flip side, Taya Oliver injects much-needed speed into Gold Coast’s offense, supported by the contested marking skills of Jac Dupuy.
*Tip*: Expect a close contest at Henson Park, with Sydney clinching a narrow victory by a single point.
*Melbourne vs. Richmond at Casey Fields, 5.05pm AEDT*
*Last time they met*: Melbourne 8.6 (54) defeated Richmond 6.2 (38), Round 2, 2022 S6.
Melbourne is revitalized, boasting three consecutive wins thanks to increased contest efficiency and strong performances from forwards like Alyssa Bannan. Though finals aspirations may be a stretch, they intend to make a significant impact. Richmond, meanwhile, has excelled in maintaining fluid connections through layered defense and a dynamic midfield, making them a formidable opponent, particularly in marking contests inside 50.
The Tigers thrive on long kicks and contested marks, while the Demons are returning to their finesse-filled game with quick hands out of stoppage situations. Stars like Ellie McKenzie and Eilish Sheerin are primed to alter the game during intense midfield battles and create opportunities for potent forwards.
*Tip*: With their current form, the Tigers may be in their strongest position yet to beat the Demons—Richmond by five points.
*West Coast vs. Fremantle at Sullivan Logistics Stadium, 4.05pm AWST*
*Last time they met*: Fremantle 4.3 (27) defeated West Coast 2.7 (19), Round 1, 2023.
Fremantle aims to assert dominance in the forward half, yet they often falter when drawn into defensive battles. Contrarily, West Coast’s struggles in applying forward pressure are evident, with last-place rankings for inside 50s and intercepts. This match hinges on West Coast’s ability to maintain a foothold in the forward half while the Dockers need to sharpen their starts this week to become true contenders for finals.
Both teams will also face off against former players Aisling McCarthy and Roxy Roux, adding extra excitement to the match.
*Tip*: West Coast will challenge again, but Fremantle is likely to maintain their perfect record, winning by four points.
**SUNDAY, OCTOBER 20**
*Last time they met*: Brisbane 6.2 (38) defeated Geelong 5.4 (34), preliminary final, 2023.
The previous encounter between Brisbane and Geelong was dramatic, and with contrasting statuses this season, the rematch holds intriguing implications. While the Cats’ finals hopes hang by a thread, the Lions are aiming to build momentum. Both teams excel at transitioning the ball effectively, hinting at an exciting contest.
Brisbane’s strength at the contest will be pivotal. Their midfield prowess—bolstered by Cathy Svarc and Belle Dawes—translates to scoring opportunities, but Geelong’s Aishling Moloney may pose a significant threat, especially considering her prior success against Brisbane defense.
*Tip*: The Lions are poised for a solid run-up to finals, winning by 17 points.
*Essendon vs. North Melbourne at Windy Hill, 3.05pm AEDT*
*Last time they met*: Essendon and North Melbourne have never played one another.
North Melbourne ranks among the competition’s elite in converting inside 50 entries into scores. The Roos’ effective layering and ability to dominate contests highlight their offensive capabilities. This puts pressure on Essendon coach Natalie Wood to field her best defensive lineup, particularly in facing North Melbourne’s diverse forward threats.
At the opposite end, Essendon must capitalize on their scoring opportunities, continuing to apply pressure against the Roos’ defense to break through their resilience.
*Tip*: With their current form and standings, North Melbourne is on track to secure the minor premiership, winning by 24 points.
*Collingwood vs. Adelaide at Victoria Park, 5.05pm AEDT*
*Last time they met*: Adelaide 3.5 (23) defeated Collingwood 1.5 (11), semi-final, 2022 S7.
Adelaide recognizes that their recent performances have left room for improvement, despite a significant win over Greater Western Sydney last week. Their focus on addressing weaknesses makes them a dangerous contender. The Crows excel at the stoppage, showcasing talents like Ebony Marinoff and the dynamic duo of Danielle Ponter and Stevie-Lee Thompson.
Collingwood’s midfield will face challenges, and they must improve their transitional play to stifle the Crows’ scoring chances, especially in the contested and marking areas where Caitlin Gould shines.
This weekend’s matches promise intense action with finals implications in every corner—a showdown of talent, strategy, and the pursuit of glory awaits!
Priyam Gera